McKinney, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

345
FXUS64 KFWD 180112
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
712 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An arctic cold front arrives tonight with much colder weather
  expected through the upcoming week.

- Wind chills in the single digits to teens are expected each
  morning Sunday through Wednesday.

- A light accumulation of snow is expected mainly across parts of
  Central Texas late Monday night and Tuesday. No significant
  impacts are expected at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
Late afternoon/early evening surface observations and satellite
analysis show the thick layer of mid/upper level clouds is
continuing to clear out with areas of blowing dust lowering
visibilities from West Texas into western North Texas. The
forecast trends discussed below generally remain on track, and no
significant adjustments were needed with this evening`s update
other than to incorporate present observations. The cold front
that marks the leading edge of the incoming arctic air mass is
currently analyzed over northwestern Oklahoma and the southern
Texas Panhandle.

Ahead of the FROPA, the strong surface winds are already
beginning to ease as daytime mixing ceases. The latest timing
brings the front across the Red River between 9 and 11 PM, through
the I-20 corridor 11 PM to 1 AM, and through Central and East
Texas before daybreak. The absence of appreciable moisture will
likely preclude any measurable precipitation along the front, but
a few sprinkles cannot be ruled out. Though the cold air push is
lagging behind the initial northward wind shift, morning lows are
expected to be in the mid 30s to lower 40s with wind chills in
the mid 20s and 30s. A mid-level trough will dive south towards
the Southern Plains late Saturday, bringing a reinforcing shot of
cold air to the state. By sunrise Sunday, temperatures will be in
the low to mid 20s with wind chills in the teens and single
digits.

12

Previous Discussion:
/This Afternoon through Saturday Night/

Thick high clouds continue to stream across North Texas this
afternoon as a southern stream shortwave spreads into the Plains.
Modest forcing for ascent is spreading through North Texas at this
hour and some scattered light rain showers are occurring, but a very
dry sub cloud layer means most of this isn`t making it to the
ground. This disturbance will spread northeast this evening ahead
of a deepening central CONUS trough and will eventually drag a
strong cold front through tonight. For the remainder of the
afternoon, we`ll see thinning cloud cover and breezy southerly
winds which become a little more southwesterly by this evening.
While the clouds have hampered temperatures a bit this morning, we
still expect them to climb into the mid 60s and lower 70s along
and west of I-35. Areas to the east will remain a little cooler.

The aforementioned central CONUS trough will continue to dig
southward tonight with a steady tap of polar air spreading
southward. The cold front with an initial temperature drop will
arrive late this evening with winds becoming more northwesterly
and temperatures dropping into the 30s overnight. Strong northerly
winds will maintain a deep layer of cold advection through the day
Saturday keeping high temperatures capped in the 40s with wind
chills in the upper 20s and 30s. Strong forcing for ascent and
some moisture will result in snow across the TX Panhandle Saturday
night. Most of this will stay off to our northwest, but we could
see some flurries try to sneak into our far northwest counties. No
impacts or accumulations would be expected from this.

Saturday night will be cold with lows in the upper teens and low
20s. North winds will result in wind chills in the single digits
early Sunday morning.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 326 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025/
/Sunday through Friday/

Sunday morning will start off very cold with wind chills in the
single digits and actual air temperatures in the upper teens and
low 20s. A 1051 mb high will be spilling out of southern Canada
into the Northern Plains during this time maintaining modest cold
advection across North Texas through the day Sunday. High
temperatures will struggle to get above freezing across our
northern counties with most areas in the mid 30s by Sunday
afternoon.  A large continental trough will be in place with
anomalously low 500 mb heights throughout much of the Midwest and
Plains. This pattern will support an extended period of hazardous
cold throughout North and Central Texas and preparations should be
made to protect exposed pipes and ensuring you have ways to stay
warm. Confidence in the cold weather forecast is near 100%.

By late Sunday, a shortwave will dig into the back side of the
CONUS trough and spread across the Four Corners region. This
trough will eventually spread across North Texas and bring a
chance for wintry precipitation to the region Monday night into
Tuesday. The main challenge with this particular trough is its
timing. A slower ejection out of the Southwest would allow better
moisture to work northward and would result in heavier snowfall
totals, while a faster transition eastward would keep the better
moisture confined to our south and result in lower snowfall
totals. Ensemble guidance has essentially been split over the last
few days, but is starting to home in on a slightly slower
solution. Analysis of moisture fields (particularly PW) which will
have an impact on actual accumulations support raising snowfall
totals just a bit in our southeast counties. While this isn`t a
significant change, confidence in accumulations of around 1" has
risen to about 40%. The thermal profile will be very cold (much
colder than our last event) so all snow is forecast at this time.
This won`t be an ice accumulation event which should
significantly reduce the impacts to travel. The cold temperatures
will also result in slightly higher snow ratios and the snow
should mainly be fluffy and dry as opposed to the heavier wet snow
we saw last week. Precipitation is expected to begin after dark
Monday evening and continue through early Tuesday morning with the
favored areas for snowfall south of I-20 and favored areas for
accumulations mainly southeast of a Lampasas to Waco to Athens
line. We`ll continue to refine any accumulation amounts through
the weekend.

Otherwise, the cold weather will likely be of more significant
impact given its duration through the upcoming week. These
temperatures will be cold enough to damage exposed pipes and
people should ensure that they have ways to stay warm through the
week. Sunday night, Monday night, and Tuesday night will all see
similar overnight lows in the teens and low 20s. Southerly winds
will return on Wednesday and a slow warmup is expected through the
end of the week, although below normal temperatures will persist.

Dunn

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

VFR flight conditions prevail with southerly surface winds around
15 to 20 kts and occasional gusts to 25 kts. Winds will gradually
veer to the west over the next few hours with diminishing wind
speeds ahead of the inbound strong cold front. Speaking of the cold
front, it is still on track to move across D10 tonight, reaching
the Metroplex around 06Z and Central Texas/Waco before 12Z. The
northwest wind shift (310-340) will also be accompanied by a sharp
increase in wind speeds with sustained winds around 15 to 20 kts
and gusts to 30-35 kts through much of the day. The lack of
available moisture precludes any precipitation with this front,
therefore there will be no major aviation concerns through the end
of the current TAF period.

12

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    38  46  22  36  20 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                41  50  25  38  21 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               38  46  20  34  17 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              34  45  21  35  16 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            37  45  21  35  18 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              39  47  22  36  21 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             39  47  22  36  19 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           41  49  24  38  21 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              41  52  25  40  18 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       35  46  20  35  16 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$