McKinney, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

655
FXUS64 KFWD 052331
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
631 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered strong to locally severe thunderstorms will impact
  parts of North Texas this evening into tonight. Lightning and
  downburst winds will be the main threats.

- Cooler weather and rain chances continue tomorrow through
  Monday behind a cold front. Average total rainfall amounts over
  the four day period are expected to be around .75 inch or less.

- Hotter and drier weather will return mid to late next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
One isolated severe thunderstorm continues across Denton County
currently with more scattered rain and a few thunderstorms across
northwest North Texas. Did not make many changes to the short term
forecast and only did minor updates based on latest radar trends.
Cold front is current along a Cisco to Denton line moving
southeast, with temperatures in the 90s south of the front and
70s/80s north of the boundary.


Shamburger

Previous Discussion:
/Through Saturday Night/

A hot afternoon is still in store for much of the region with
temperatures rising into the mid to upper 90s. An active period will
begin later this afternoon through tonight as a cold front continues
to slowly move across North Texas. Scattered showers and storms are
still expected to develop near/along the front with the support of a
weak mid/upper level trough and daytime mixing. Based on the latest
CAMs, the onset of storms should be after 3-4pm as the front aligns
west-to-east north of I-20. The coverage of precipitation should
increase in the evening hours, but some locations may miss the rain
entirely. The threat for a few strong to marginally severe storms
will exist for areas generally north of I-20 through the evening
with damaging winds and small hail. Those with outdoor activities
this evening should pay close attention to the weather due to the
lightning threat with any storm. The rain/storms will continue to
spread into Central Texas overnight as the front moves south but the
severe threat is expected to diminish by then. Post frontal rain
will persist into Saturday morning as continued tropical moisture
gets transported into our region. The front should be south of our
area by Saturday afternoon, but low rain/storm chances will persist
for areas in Central/East Texas. The more exciting news continues to
be the cooler weather expected tomorrow with highs staying in the
70s/80s area wide with the exception of the far southern zones where
the front may linger longer keeping the highs in the mid/upper 80s.

Sanchez

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 153 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025/
/Sunday and Next Week/

The long-term forecast features rain chances and below normal
temperatures on Sunday followed by a warming trend next week.
Areas across Central Texas will have the best rain/storm chances
(50-60%) on Sunday where the rest of the region stays in the
20-40% range. A mid level wave will travel across Central Texas on
Sunday keeping the highest coverage in that area. Guidance
continue to trend lower with the rainfall totals through the
weekend with average totals less than 1". A few locations could
see between 1-2 inches, but the probabilities are still around
10%.

A mid level ridge will take control of the weather pattern
Tuesday through the rest of the week which will bring back the
rain-free weather and warmer temperatures. We`re looking at
widespread highs in the low 90s Wednesday through Friday.

Sanchez

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

VCTS will impact D10 airports early in the TAF period with a
fropa switching winds from south/southeast to northwest/north with
speeds up to 15 knots and a few higher gusts. Fropa is expected
to reach ACT later this evening. Overnight, VCSH will continue at
all airports with MVFR cigs arriving early Saturday morning.

Shamburger

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Limited spotter activation may be requested this evening for
areas generally along and north of I-20. Even if activation is not
locally requested, any reports of hazardous weather to the
National Weather Service are appreciated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    67  81  69  84  67 /  40  30  10  20  10
Waco                72  80  70  84  67 /  20  30  20  50  20
Paris               65  78  64  82  62 /  60  40  10  10   5
Denton              63  81  65  84  64 /  40  30  10  20  10
McKinney            65  80  66  84  64 /  50  30  10  20  10
Dallas              68  81  69  85  68 /  40  30  20  20  10
Terrell             67  80  67  83  64 /  50  40  20  20  10
Corsicana           72  81  70  84  67 /  30  30  20  40  10
Temple              72  83  68  84  67 /  10  20  20  50  20
Mineral Wells       64  80  65  83  65 /  40  30  10  30  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$