McKinney, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

813
FXUS64 KFWD 150551
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1251 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

...New Short Term, Long Term, Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and dry weather will continue through Friday.

- A cold front will bring a slight chance of storms Friday night and
  Saturday, followed by a brief cool-down Saturday night and
  Sunday.

- Warm and dry weather returns early next week.


&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Thursday/

We will begin the period with the weather pattern across the
CONUS being comprised of upper lows along the West Coast and just
off the Eastern Seaboard, with our persistent ridge aloft acting
as an omega block in between. The ridge is unseasonably strong,
with 500mb heights sitting between 593 and 595 decameters through
Wednesday. Fortunately, light east winds and weak cool air
advection at the surface will offset the impressive heights aloft.
Though another warm day is in store with highs in the 80s,
temperatures will be well below record values.

A shift in the upper level pattern will begin to take shape
Wednesday night through Thursday. The West Coast low will race off
to the northeast, but an upper trough will remain in its stead;
working its way slowly east into the Rockies and shunting the
mid/upper ridge off to the east. The main change that will be felt
locally will be a veering and slight strengthening of the surface
winds as a lee-side surface low deepens. Hopefully the resulting
south breeze will help alleviate the feel of the above-normal
October temperatures.

30

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Thursday Night Onward/

The upper trough will continue its eastward march through the
Rockies Thursday night and Friday, eventually sweeping through the
Plains Friday night through Saturday. A lead shortwave will lift
northeast across the area Thursday night, but a lack of
appreciable moisture will preclude any convection associated with
this feature (though a few sprinkles may occur). Better
opportunities for convection will accompany the main trough Friday
night and Saturday, with activity being focused along an
attendant cold front. Moisture content will still be less than
impressive, but should be sufficient for the development of
scattered showers and isolated storms. Not everyone will receive
rain, but the best chances will be east of I-35 and north of I-20
where the higher moisture content will exist, with decreasing
chances the farther west and south you go. Unfortunately it
doesn`t appear that the rainfall deficit thus far this autumn will
see much if any improvement with this particular system.

The good news is that following the frontal passage Saturday
morning, a nice cool-down can be expected for the rest of the
weekend with temperatures much closer to seasonal normals. Low
temperatures both Saturday night and Sunday night should be mostly
in the 50s, with Sunday highs ranging from the upper 70s to middle
80s. A warm-up will ensue on Monday as a ridge quickly strengthens
in the wake of the exiting upper trough. The upper level pattern
will be a progressive one, however, with another cold front
looking likely on Tuesday, and another upper level storm system
appearing possible during the latter half of next week.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06Z TAFs/

A surface ridge centered over the Great Lakes will keep light east
winds in place through Wednesday night. Winds will veer to the
southeast on Thursday, which may require an additional line in the
DFW TAF for the morning issuance. High pressure aloft will
otherwise maintain VFR and tranquil aviation weather through the
end of the TAF cycle.

30

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    63  87  68  88  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                60  86  65  88  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               58  86  63  86  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              58  85  63  88  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            58  87  63  87  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              63  87  68  88  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             58  87  63  86  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           61  88  66  88  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              59  87  63  88  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       58  87  62  90  65 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$